22-25 JAN - MAJOR STOCK TREND
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| Name | 15 Minutes | Hourly | Daily | Weekly | Monthly |
| USD/INR | Neutral | Strong Sell | Neutral | Strong Sell | Strong Sell |
| UltraTech Cement | Strong Sell | Strong Sell | Strong Sell | Strong Buy | Strong Buy |
| Tata Motors | Neutral | Strong Sell | Strong Sell | Strong Sell | Sell |
| Tata Motors DV Ltd | Strong Buy | Strong Sell | Strong Sell | Neutral | Sell |
| Sun Pharma | Neutral | Strong Sell | Neutral | Buy | Neutral |
| Shriram Transport | Neutral | Strong Sell | Sell | Strong Buy | Strong Buy |
| Shree Cements | Neutral | Strong Sell | Neutral | Buy | Strong Buy |
| Power Grid | Neutral | Strong Sell | Strong Sell | Strong Sell | Neutral |
| Power Finance | Buy | Strong Sell | Strong Sell | Strong Sell | Sell |
| Pidilite Industries | Strong Sell | Strong Sell | Sell | Strong Buy | Strong Buy |
| Oil India | Buy | Strong Sell | Neutral | Strong Buy | Strong Buy |
| Oil & Natural Gas | Strong Sell | Strong Sell | Sell | Strong Buy | Strong Buy |
| NHPC | Buy | Strong Sell | Strong Sell | Strong Buy | Strong Buy |
| Maruti Suzuki | Neutral | Strong Sell | Sell | Strong Buy | Strong Buy |
| Hindustan Zinc | Strong Sell | Strong Sell | Strong Sell | Neutral | Strong Buy |
| Hero MotoCorp | Buy | Strong Sell | Strong Sell | Strong Sell | Strong Buy |
| Havells India | Neutral | Strong Sell | Neutral | Strong Buy | Strong Buy |
| DLF | Neutral | Strong Sell | Sell | Strong Buy | Strong Buy |
| Cummins | Sell | Strong Sell | Strong Sell | Neutral | Buy |
| Coal India | Neutral | Strong Sell | Neutral | Buy | Neutral |
| Cipla | Buy | Strong Sell | Strong Sell | Neutral | Strong Buy |
| Bharti Infratel | Buy | Strong Sell | Strong Sell | Strong Sell | Neutral |
| Bharat Electronics | Buy | Strong Sell | Strong Sell | Neutral | Strong Buy |
| Avenue Supermarts | Neutral | Strong Sell | Strong Sell | Buy | Strong Buy |
| Aurobindo Pharma | Strong Buy | Strong Sell | Strong Sell | Strong Sell | Sell |
| Ashok Leyland | Strong Buy | Strong Sell | Strong Sell | Strong Buy | Strong Buy |
| Ambuja Cements | Strong Sell | Strong Sell | Strong Sell | Neutral | Strong Buy |
| Zee Entertainment | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy |
| Yes Bank | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy |
| Wipro | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy |
| Torrent Pharma | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy |
| Tata Consultancy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy |
| SBI | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy |
| Reliance Industries | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy |
| Punjab National Bank | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy |
| Punjab National Bank | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy |
| Procter&Gamble | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy |
| NMDC | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Sell | Strong Buy | Strong Buy |
| Nifty Bank | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy |
| Nifty 50 | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy |
| Motherson Sumi Systems | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy |
| Marico | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Sell | Neutral | Strong Buy |
| Mahindra & Mahindra | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy |
| Lupin | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Sell | Strong Sell |
| Lic Housing Finance | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Sell | Strong Sell | Sell |
| Larsen & Toubro | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy |
| Kotak Mahindra Bank | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy |
| JSW Steel | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy |
| ITC | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy |
| Interglobe Aviation Ltd | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Neutral | Strong Buy | Strong Buy |
| Indian Oil | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Sell | Strong Sell | Buy |
| Indiabulls | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy |
| ICICI Prudential Life Insu. | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy |
| ICICI Bank | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy |
| Housing Development Financ. | Neutral | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy |
| HDFC Bank | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy |
| HCL Technologies | Neutral | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy |
| Godrej Consumer | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy |
| GlaxoSmithkline Healthcare. | Sell | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy |
| Dr. Reddy's Labs | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Neutral |
| Container Corporation | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy |
| Bank Of Baroda | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Neutral | Neutral |
| Bank Of Baroda | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Neutral | Neutral |
| Bajaj Auto | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Neutral | Buy | Strong Buy |
| AXIS Bank | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy |
| Asian Paints | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy |
| Adani | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy |
| ABB India | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy |
| Tata Steel Ltd | Strong Buy | Sell | Neutral | Strong Buy | Strong Buy |
| Tata Power Co. | Strong Buy | Sell | Strong Sell | Strong Buy | Strong Buy |
| Tata Power Co. | Strong Buy | Sell | Strong Sell | Strong Buy | Strong Buy |
| Steel Authority | Strong Buy | Sell | Sell | Strong Buy | Strong Buy |
| Piramal Enterprises | Strong Buy | Sell | Sell | Strong Buy | Strong Buy |
| Petronet LNG | Strong Buy | Sell | Strong Sell | Sell | Strong Buy |
| NTPC | Strong Buy | Sell | Strong Sell | Sell | Strong Buy |
| M.R.F. | Buy | Sell | Strong Sell | Buy | Strong Buy |
| Hindustan Unilever | Strong Buy | Sell | Neutral | Strong Buy | Strong Buy |
| Britannia Industries | Strong Buy | Sell | Strong Sell | Buy | Strong Buy |
| Bharat Heavy Electricals | Buy | Sell | Sell | Strong Buy | Neutral |
| ACC | Buy | Sell | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy |
| ACC | Buy | Sell | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy |
| United Spirits | Strong Buy | Neutral | Neutral | Strong Buy | Strong Buy |
| Titan Company | Strong Buy | Neutral | Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy |
| Tech Mahindra | Neutral | Neutral | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy |
| Siemens AG | Strong Buy | Neutral | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy |
| Rural Electrification | Strong Buy | Neutral | Strong Sell | Sell | Neutral |
| Oracle | Strong Buy | Neutral | Neutral | Strong Buy | Strong Buy |
| Infosys | Neutral | Neutral | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy |
| IndusInd Bank | Strong Buy | Neutral | Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy |
| Idea Cellular | Strong Buy | Neutral | Sell | Strong Buy | Buy |
| Hindalco Industries | Strong Buy | Neutral | Strong Sell | Strong Buy | Strong Buy |
| Glenmark Pharma | Strong Buy | Neutral | Strong Buy | Buy | Sell |
| GlaxoSmithkline Pharma | Strong Buy | Neutral | Strong Sell | Sell | Strong Sell |
| GAIL Ltd | Strong Buy | Neutral | Strong Sell | Buy | Strong Buy |
| Emami | Strong Buy | Neutral | Strong Sell | Strong Buy | Strong Buy |
| Eicher Motors | Strong Buy | Neutral | Strong Sell | Strong Sell | Strong Buy |
| Dabur India | Strong Buy | Neutral | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy |
| Colgate-Palmolive | Strong Sell | Neutral | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy |
| Cadila Healthcare | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral |
| Bosch | Strong Buy | Neutral | Buy | Sell | Sell |
| Bharti Airtel | Strong Buy | Neutral | Strong Sell | Strong Buy | Strong Buy |
| Bharat Petroleum | Strong Buy | Neutral | Strong Sell | Sell | Strong Buy |
| Bajaj Finserv | Strong Buy | Neutral | Strong Sell | Neutral | Strong Buy |
| Vedanta | Strong Buy | Buy | Neutral | Strong Buy | Strong Buy |
| Sun TV Network Ltd | Strong Buy | Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy |
A 10% move in the indices on budget day ?
ReplyDelete1. The Blue Line is the cumulative Nifty fut open interest for 1st and 2nd months. Compared to historical values, looks within normal range though at the highest point in the past 6 years or so. But still much much below the huge OIs of 2008
2. The Red Line is the total value of the Nifty futures contracts OI, simply (Cumulative OI * current value of Nifty futures) . Here things gets interesting.
As One can see, Nifty futures starts shedding OI when the value reaches Rs. 300 billion. This has been a laxman-rekha in 2007 and also in this bull run of 2016-2017.
But in Jan 2018 this level got broken convincingly and total value has climbed up to a dizzying height of Rs 424 billion
3. The Green Line is the margin amount put up by traders, currently margins are at 8% of contract value. That makes is Rs. 34 billion in margins for longs, and an equivalent amount for shorts
Analysis :
1. The Weighted Moving Average of the last 18 trading sessions ( since the OI has started going up without any correction) now stands at 10850. Thus we can assume this is the average prices for all longs in the system, and also the average price for all shorts ( Since net OI is either net longs or net shorts). We are a neat 250 points above this level as per the last closing
2. I am not expecting any major change in OI before the budget day.
Longs will have created the positions with a view on the budget so they will go in till budget day with their positions intact hoping for a favourable budget thus squeezing the shorts. They have a cushion of a clear 250 points to play .
Shorts have been trapped badly in January and their only hope now is the budget. SO I don't see them also doing anything major with their open positions till budget day. They would be hoping for a populist budget thus leading to a selloff. However, since they are already losing money any further upsides in the next 3 days will increase their tension.
3. Options data suggests a range of 10700 to 11500 post the budget which is kind of normal before an event like a budget.
However, this kind of massive OI is unprecedented before an event like the budget. Normally traders go in light thus reducing risk, this time it's totally opposite
I make no assumtions on which side will win. However, this kind of massive money being bet in the system leads me to believe that budget day or post budget day we might see a 10% move in the indices either side.
Playing this view has to be through options strategies, playing naked futures will be suicidal if the tarde goes the wrong way.
Views are personal and not a recco to buy or sell, use your judgement while trading. :)
PS : A continuous rise in VIX over the next 3 trading sessions before budget will strengthen my view that something cataclysmic is shaping up for budget day